I N T R E P X

The role of intelligence in international relations and conflict prevention has been a subject of considerable analysis and reflection by various CIA officials and directors. This literature review compiles key quotes from these figures, highlighting the consistent theme that intelligence is more about preventing wars than winning them.

Intelligence as a Peacekeeper

Robert Gates, a former CIA Director who served under several U.S. presidents, articulated the preventative role of intelligence succinctly:

• “Intelligence is not the best way to win a war, but it is the best way to keep the peace.”

This perspective underscores the idea that intelligence agencies function primarily as peacekeepers, aiming to identify and neutralize threats before they escalate into full-blown conflicts. Gates’ tenure, particularly during the end of the Cold War, demonstrated the importance of intelligence in maintaining stability during tense geopolitical standoffs.

Strategic Intelligence in Decision-Making

Michael Hayden, who served as CIA Director from 2006 to 2009, emphasized the role of intelligence in shaping policy to avoid conflict:

• “The function of intelligence is to inform policy, not to make policy.”

Hayden’s view highlights that intelligence provides critical context and insights that guide policymakers in making informed decisions. This is particularly important in avoiding unnecessary wars by offering alternative solutions grounded in a deep understanding of the adversary’s capabilities and intentions. His stance is rooted in the belief that intelligence should serve as a guide for diplomatic efforts rather than a justification for military intervention.

The Deterrent Effect of Intelligence

James Clapper, who served as Director of National Intelligence from 2010 to 2017, focused on the deterrent aspect of intelligence:

• “The purpose of intelligence is to provide warning and to deter adversaries by letting them know we are watching.”

Clapper’s statement reflects the importance of intelligence in preventing conflicts through deterrence. By gathering and utilizing intelligence effectively, nations can signal to potential adversaries that their actions are being monitored, thus discouraging aggressive behavior. This approach was especially relevant during the Cold War, where intelligence played a key role in maintaining a balance of power and preventing direct confrontation between nuclear-armed states.

Lessons from Intelligence Failures

George Tenet, who led the CIA from 1997 to 2004, provides an example of how intelligence can be misused, potentially leading to war rather than preventing it:

• “The case for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq was a ‘slam dunk.’”

This quote, often cited in discussions about the lead-up to the Iraq War, illustrates the dangers of misinterpreting or politicizing intelligence. Tenet’s remark became infamous as it was later revealed that the intelligence supporting the existence of WMDs in Iraq was flawed. This case serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating that when intelligence is used to justify predetermined policies rather than to explore alternatives, it can contribute to the outbreak of war rather than its prevention.

Intelligence as a Preventative Measure

John Brennan, who served as CIA Director from 2013 to 2017, summarized the core objective of intelligence work:

• “The most effective way to keep America safe is to prevent conflicts before they start, and that is the essence of what intelligence does.”

Brennan’s statement encapsulates the preventive nature of intelligence. By identifying threats early and providing actionable insights to policymakers, intelligence agencies can help avoid conflicts that might otherwise lead to war. His tenure, marked by the challenges of global terrorism and cyber threats, reinforced the importance of intelligence in maintaining national and international security without resorting to military force.

Conclusion

Across various administrations and global crises, CIA directors and officials have consistently emphasized that the primary role of intelligence is not to win wars but to prevent them. This literature review, through the voices of Robert Gates, Michael Hayden, James Clapper, George Tenet, and John Brennan, illustrates that intelligence is most valuable when it helps to maintain peace by providing early warnings, informing policy, deterring adversaries, and preventing the escalation of conflicts. This preventive function, often carried out behind the scenes, is crucial in safeguarding national security and promoting global stability.