I N T R E P X

Chapter 9 of “Folly and Glory” by Tim Weiner explores the transition from the Cold War era to a new, uncertain global landscape characterized by emerging threats and evolving challenges for U.S. foreign policy. This chapter examines the strategic shifts the United States faced after the fall of the Soviet Union, as it sought to define its role in a world no longer dominated by the bipolar rivalry of superpowers. Weiner delves into the complexities of the post-Cold War period, highlighting the emergence of new geopolitical dynamics, regional conflicts, and the rise of non-state actors.

1. The Unipolar Moment and U.S. Dominance:
Weiner begins by discussing the initial optimism that accompanied the end of the Cold War, as the United States emerged as the world’s sole superpower. This period, often referred to as the “unipolar moment,” was marked by a belief in the possibility of a new world order based on democratic values, free markets, and American leadership.

However, the lack of a clear global rival also posed a challenge for U.S. foreign policy, as the country struggled to redefine its strategic priorities in a rapidly changing world. Weiner explains how this shift led to debates within the U.S. government and among policymakers about the direction of American engagement abroad, with some advocating for continued global leadership while others called for a more restrained approach.

2. Regional Conflicts and Humanitarian Interventions:
With the Cold War’s end, long-suppressed ethnic and regional conflicts flared up in various parts of the world, often with devastating consequences. Weiner highlights several key conflicts of the 1990s, including the wars in the Balkans, the Rwandan genocide, and the ongoing turmoil in Somalia. These conflicts posed difficult questions for U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the extent of American responsibility to intervene in humanitarian crises.

Weiner details how the U.S. and its allies struggled to respond effectively to these crises, with interventions often marked by indecision and mixed results. The NATO intervention in the Balkans, for example, eventually helped bring peace to Bosnia and Kosovo, but only after years of bloodshed and ethnic cleansing. In contrast, the failure to intervene decisively in Rwanda allowed a genocide to unfold largely unchecked, highlighting the limitations of U.S. and international responses to such atrocities.

3. The Rise of Non-State Actors and Terrorism:
One of the most significant shifts in the post-Cold War period was the rise of non-state actors, including terrorist groups that posed new security challenges. Weiner examines the growing threat of international terrorism, particularly from Islamist extremist groups like al-Qaeda, which gained prominence in the 1990s.

The chapter details key events, such as the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in East Africa, and the attack on the USS Cole in 2000. These incidents underscored the evolving nature of threats to U.S. security, as traditional state-based strategies proved inadequate against decentralized, networked groups capable of striking globally.

Weiner argues that the rise of terrorism was a consequence of both the power vacuum left by the end of the Cold War and the unintended effects of U.S. foreign policy decisions, including support for mujahideen fighters during the Soviet-Afghan War. This new threat environment required a rethinking of U.S. defense and intelligence strategies, which had been primarily focused on deterring state actors.

4. The Challenge of Rogue States and Weapons Proliferation:
Weiner also explores the challenges posed by so-called “rogue states” that sought to undermine international norms and acquire weapons of mass destruction. Countries like Iraq, North Korea, and Iran pursued nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs, raising fears of proliferation and the potential for these weapons to fall into the hands of hostile actors.

The chapter discusses the U.S. response to these threats, including diplomatic efforts, sanctions, and, in some cases, military intervention. The 1991 Gulf War against Iraq demonstrated American military dominance but also foreshadowed the complexities of dealing with regimes that flouted international rules. Weiner highlights the ongoing tension between efforts to curb proliferation and the challenges of enforcing compliance, particularly in the absence of a unifying global adversary like the Soviet Union.

5. The Evolution of U.S. Foreign Policy:
Throughout the 1990s, U.S. foreign policy evolved in response to these new challenges, shifting from a focus on superpower competition to managing a range of diverse and often unpredictable threats. Weiner outlines how different administrations approached these challenges, from George H.W. Bush’s cautious pragmatism to Bill Clinton’s emphasis on economic globalization and humanitarian intervention.

Despite the absence of a peer competitor, the U.S. found itself increasingly involved in global affairs, from peacekeeping missions to efforts to promote democracy and free markets. However, Weiner notes that this period also revealed the limits of American power, as the U.S. struggled to address complex conflicts and emerging threats that did not fit neatly into traditional foreign policy frameworks.

6. The Prelude to the 21st Century:
The chapter concludes by setting the stage for the challenges of the early 21st century, noting that many of the issues that emerged in the 1990s—terrorism, rogue states, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction—would continue to shape U.S. foreign policy. Weiner underscores the importance of adapting to a more multipolar and complex world, where new actors and unconventional threats required innovative approaches to national security and international relations.

Conclusion:
Chapter 9 of “Folly and Glory” highlights the complexities of the post-Cold War era, a time of both opportunity and uncertainty for U.S. foreign policy. Weiner illustrates how the end of the bipolar order gave rise to a new set of challenges, including regional conflicts, the rise of terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The chapter underscores the difficulties of navigating a world without clear lines of competition, where the U.S. had to balance its aspirations for global leadership with the realities of a rapidly evolving threat landscape. As the U.S. entered the new millennium, it faced a world that was less predictable and more interconnected, requiring a rethinking of strategies that had been shaped by decades of Cold War rivalry.